OCTOBER 2026 FORECAST
The October 2026 to December 2026 Ofgem energy price cap will be confirmed by 26 August 2026. This page summarises current analyst forecasts and the factors influencing where the cap may land.
Price cap forecasts are estimates only. They are not confirmed figures. The actual October 2026 cap level will be announced by Ofgem by 26 August 2026. This site is an information resource and does not provide financial advice.
CURRENT FORECAST
Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy with a strong track record in price cap forecasting, has forecast the October 2026 cap at approximately £1,899 per year for a typical dual fuel household paying by direct debit.
This would represent a further increase of approximately £37 above the July 2026 cap level of £1,862, and a total rise of £258 above the April 2026 level of £1,641.
The October forecast remains subject to significant uncertainty. The assessment window -- the period of wholesale market data that feeds into the calculation -- runs from 19 May to 18 August 2026. The window has only recently opened and wholesale prices can shift materially before it closes.
Cornwall Insight forecast
~£1,899
Estimated October 2026 cap
Cornwall Insight forecast. Subject to change as wholesale prices move during the assessment window.
Assessment window
19 May to 18 August 2026
Wholesale prices during this period feed directly into the October cap calculation.
Ofgem announcement due
By 26 August 2026
Ofgem will confirm the final cap level by this date. Check back for the confirmed figures.
MARKET CONTEXT
The July 2026 cap rise and current forecasts for October are driven by conditions in wholesale global energy markets. Understanding the drivers helps explain why prices have risen and what might cause them to fall.
The US-Iran conflict from late February 2026 significantly disrupted global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply routes. The effective closure of key shipping lanes caused a sharp rise in wholesale gas prices. While prices have partially recovered from their wartime highs, they remain elevated relative to early 2026 levels.
The Ofgem price cap reflects wholesale energy costs through a three-month assessment window. When wholesale prices are high during the window, the cap rises. The assessment window for October opened on 19 May 2026 -- shortly after wholesale prices had already risen substantially due to geopolitical disruption.
For a typical dual fuel household on a standard variable tariff, the combination of the July 2026 cap rise (£221/year) and the forecast October rise (£37/year) represents a total increase of approximately £258/year compared to the April 2026 level. This is the context in which fixed tariffs available below the July cap level become financially significant.
Price cap forecasts at this early stage of the assessment window carry significant uncertainty. Cornwall Insight's own guidance notes that forecasts can shift materially as new wholesale price data becomes available. The figures above should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.
Comparing Cornwall Insight's published forecasts against the final confirmed cap levels shows how early estimates have performed in recent quarters.
| Quarter | Cornwall Insight Forecast | Final Ofgem Cap | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 (Jul to Sep) | £1,720 | £1,720 | Exact match |
| Q4 2025 (Oct to Dec) | £1,717 | £1,717 | Exact match |
| Q1 2026 (Jan to Mar) | £1,738 | £1,738 | Exact match |
| Q2 2026 (Apr to Jun) | £1,641 | £1,641 | Exact match |
| Q3 2026 (Jul to Sep) | £1,862 | £1,862 | Confirmed |
| Q4 2026 (Oct to Dec) | ~£1,899 | TBC | Forecast only |
Forecast comparison data sourced from Cornwall Insight's published Default Tariff Cap Predictor. Historical final cap levels sourced from Ofgem. All figures for typical dual fuel direct debit household using Ofgem TDCV.
Log into your supplier account to confirm whether you are on a standard variable tariff or a fixed deal. If you are on the variable rate, the July cap rise will already be affecting your bills.
Fixed tariffs are currently available below the July 2026 cap level. If the October forecast is accurate, fixing now could protect you from a second consecutive quarterly rise.
Compare at Utility Matchmaker →Ofgem will confirm the October 2026 cap by 26 August 2026. This page will be updated when the final figure is announced. Bookmark it or return in late August for the confirmed rates.
Fixed tariffs are currently available below the July 2026 price cap. Compare at your postcode to see what is available at your address before the October cap announcement.